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Didactics> Cyclical Analysis

In my career as a self-taught trader I learned and experienced most of the trading techniques: technical analysis, Elliott waves, candlestick analysis and much more, but the one that gave me the most satisfaction is cyclical analysis.

In nature everything is cyclical, from the seasons to the tides, from the phases of the moon to the life of every being, we too have a cyclical path both during our entire life and within a single day.

The stock markets are not cyclically regular, but they often make movements attributable to them, it is up to us to try to understand the time frame that best suits a particular market by extrapolating the movements of the past. Everything is based on probability, there are no certainties on the stock market.

fase ciclica


Any cycle is formed by duration and amplitude, it originates from a minimum point and then reaches its maximum point (ascent phase) and returns to the minimum point (descent phase) and so on.

ciclo rialzista


In a cycle with bullish characteristics it is mandatory to see a final minimum higher than the starting one.

ciclo 3 tempi


A 3-stroke cycle has a geometry divided into 3 sub-cycles where it is usually the central one that forms the top.

sincronia ciclica


In price movements there are both very short cycles such as hourly ones and very long cycles such as multi-year ones, all linked together like a matryoshka. The departure of a cycle X also assumes that of its subcycles.

ciclo ribassista


A bearish cycle has the characteristic that it closes with a lower low than the starting one. This implies a bearish constraint even in higher cycles but only if they are not also ending.

medie cicliche


In addition to time, moving averages are fundamental components of cyclical analysis, as long as they are calibrated precisely taking into account the cyclical rhythm of that market. To be sure that a phase has started or is ending it is necessary that the fast average crosses that of the cycle in question, until then the possibilities of false starts are more probable.

ciclo neutro


A cycle is defined as neutral, or neutral, when the minimum start and finish are roughly on the same level.

ciclo 2 o 4 tempi


The 4-stroke cycle implies that it is made up of 4 sub-cycles.

nomenclatura getanalisi


For some time we have realized that cycles, as we studied them years ago, no longer exist, or rather, they no longer respect the classical durations and subdivisions. For this reason we rely on the GET and the cyclical periods analyzed are the following:

Daily phase (abbr.DL) = 1 day

Weekly phase (abbr.WK) = 5 days

Monthly phase (abbr.MN) = 20 days

Yearly phase (abbr.YR) = approximately 250 days

This setting almost always allows us to capture any time elongations in advance.

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